Markets

Trade Flows and Customs Codes

Every tonne of lithium carbonate, cobalt hydroxide, or rare earth oxide that crosses a border leaves a paper trail in customs databases. Learning to read that trail - through HS codes, mirror statistics, and bilateral trade databases - is how analysts map the true geography of critical mineral supply chains.

Countries using HS system

200+

World Customs Organization framework

Digits in standard HS code

6

Countries extend to 8–10 for domestic use

Typical UN Comtrade data lag

6–18 mo

Limiting for real-time analysis

IRA critical mineral threshold by 2027

80%

Eligible-origin value % required for EV tax credit

HS Code Reference: Critical Minerals

The six-digit HS code assigned to a mineral product determines how it is classified in customs data worldwide. Use the filter to explore codes by mineral.

Mineral Product form HS 6-digit Description
Lithium Carbonate 2836.91 Lithium carbonate
Lithium Hydroxide 2825.20 Lithium oxide and hydroxide
Lithium Spodumene conc. 2528.10 Natural lithium minerals (spodumene)
Cobalt Ores & concentrates 2605.00 Cobalt ores and concentrates
Cobalt Unwrought metal 8105.20 Cobalt, unwrought; cobalt powders
Cobalt Compounds 2822.00 Cobalt oxides and hydroxides
Nickel Ores & concentrates 2604.00 Nickel ores and concentrates
Nickel Unwrought (not alloyed) 7502.10 Nickel, unwrought, not alloyed
Nickel Nickel sulphate 2833.21 Nickel sulphate
Rare Earths Mixed oxides / hydroxides 2846.10 Mixed rare-earth oxides/hydroxides
Rare Earths Rare-earth compounds (other) 2846.90 Other rare-earth metal compounds
Rare Earths Ferro-cerium / alloys 2805.30 Rare-earth metals, Sc, Y; alloys
Graphite Natural graphite 2504.10 Natural graphite, in powder/flakes
Manganese Ores & concentrates 2602.00 Manganese ores and concentrates
Gallium Unwrought / powders 8112.92 Gallium, unwrought; gallium waste/scrap

HS codes are updated every 5–6 years by the WCO. Codes shown are HS 2022 revision. Always verify against the current tariff schedule of the importing country.

How Critical Minerals Move: Flow Visualiser

Select a mineral to see the dominant physical trade flows - from extraction country through processing hub to end market. Arrow thickness reflects relative volume.

🇨🇱🇦🇷

Chile / Argentina

Li carbonate / brine

~250 kt LCE

Converter

China

🇦🇺

Australia

Spodumene conc.

~3.5 Mt SC6

Converter

China

🇨🇳

China

LiOH / Li carbonate

~180 kt LCE

Cathode makers

South Korea / Japan

🇨🇳

China

LiOH / Li carbonate

~80 kt LCE

End market

EU / USA

The lithium trade structure is a two-stage funnel: raw forms (spodumene concentrate, brines) converge on Chinese converters, which then distribute refined chemicals globally. Australia's hard-rock production is almost entirely dependent on Chinese conversion capacity - a key geopolitical dependency that Western "friendshoring" investments aim to break.

Six Data Quality Pitfalls

Trade data looks authoritative. But every analyst who has worked with it knows the landmines. Understanding these pitfalls is the difference between a useful analysis and a misleading one.

Mirror statistic asymmetry

High impact

The same shipment reported by exporter vs. importer may differ by 5–30% in value. Analysts must choose which "mirror" to trust or average both.

Transshipment obscures origin

High impact

Materials may legally change "origin" in Rotterdam, Singapore, or UAE entrepots. A Chinese processed mineral can appear Dutch in U.S. import statistics.

Catch-all HS codes

High impact

HS 2846.90 (rare earth compounds) covers everything from NdPr oxide at $80/kg to cerium at $2/kg. Volume and value data is meaningless without splitting.

Grade and purity not recorded

Medium impact

Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (99.5% LiOH) and technical-grade share the same HS code. Price per tonne gives a hint, but volume analysis conflates the two.

Reporting lag

Medium impact

UN Comtrade data is typically 6–18 months old. By the time an analyst spots a new trade flow, market conditions may have changed significantly.

State entity non-disclosure

Medium impact

Some countries (notably China) do not report granular bilateral data to Comtrade for strategic minerals. Analysts must reconstruct from partner-country mirror data.

Trade Data Sources Compared

Six databases that analysts use to track critical mineral trade flows - with a frank assessment of each one's timeliness, granularity, and limitations.

UN Comtrade

Free

Coverage

Global, 200+ countries, back to 1962

Data lag

~6–18 months

Strength

Authoritative; mirror statistics allow cross-checking

Limitation

Significant reporting lag; some countries under-report

ITC Trade Map

Free

Coverage

Global; built on Comtrade + other sources

Data lag

~6 months

Strength

User-friendly interface; tariff and NTM overlay

Limitation

Still dependent on Comtrade timeliness

U.S. Census Bureau

Free

Coverage

USA imports and exports only

Data lag

~1 month

Strength

Near-real-time; extremely granular; company-level data available

Limitation

USA only; no processing origin detail

Eurostat

Free

Coverage

EU member states

Data lag

~2–3 months

Strength

Timely; intra-EU trade separated from extra-EU

Limitation

EU only; some HS codes aggregated

China Customs (GACC)

Subscription (often)

Coverage

China imports and exports

Data lag

~1–2 months

Strength

Essential for critical minerals; China is dominant trader

Limitation

Direct access is complex; third-party redistribution common

S&P Global / Panjiva

Paid

Coverage

Shipment-level for major trade lanes

Data lag

Near real-time for bill-of-lading data

Strength

Company-level tracking; shipment quantity and price

Limitation

Expensive; coverage varies by trade lane

Analyst tip - mirror statistics: When exporter and importer report different numbers for the same bilateral flow, always check both "mirrors." The importer's data is often more reliable for value (CIF vs. FOB pricing explains some gaps), while the exporter's data may be more current. For Chinese exports specifically, partner-country import data is often the only way to get a complete picture, since China selectively suppresses certain bilateral statistics.

IRA Critical Mineral Traceability: 6-Step Process

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act's clean vehicle tax credit requires automakers to prove where battery minerals were extracted and processed. This 6-step workflow shows what that compliance chain looks like in practice.

1

Identify all battery minerals in the vehicle

List every critical mineral by weight and value in the battery pack: lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, etc. All must be traced.

2

Trace extraction and processing origin

For each mineral, identify the mine/extraction site country and the processing country. The IRA requires extraction/processing in the US or a Free Trade Agreement partner.

3

Check for Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) touchpoints

Determine if any entity with >25% ownership by a "covered nation" (China, Russia, North Korea, Iran) processed or extracted the mineral at any point in the chain.

4

Obtain chain-of-custody documentation

Collect customs declarations, certificates of origin, and refinery attestations for each mineral at each processing stage. Third-party audit may be required.

5

Calculate eligible value percentage

Sum the value of minerals meeting origin requirements as a percentage of total battery mineral value. Must exceed the applicable threshold (40% in 2024, rising to 80% by 2027).

6

File compliance documentation

Submit manufacturer's attestation to the IRS via Form 8936. Automaker bears legal responsibility; supply chain traceability failures create tax credit liability.

2024 threshold

40% of battery critical mineral value must qualify. This threshold rises 10 percentage points each year until it reaches 80% in 2027.

FTA partner countries

Include Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan, South Korea, EU members (where FTA exists), and others. China, Russia, and DRC are notably absent.

FEOC phaseout timeline

Battery components: no FEOC from 2024. Battery minerals: no FEOC from 2025. Given China's processing dominance, compliance is extremely challenging for many supply chains.

Related Market Topics

Supply-Demand Models

How trade data calibrates and validates critical mineral supply-demand forecasts.

Market Manipulation and Transparency

Trade data as a tool for detecting anomalies and verifying market claims.

Supply Chain Bottlenecks

How trade flow concentration reveals the chokepoints in mineral supply chains.

Processing and Refining Bottlenecks

The midstream processing concentration that trade flows reveal most clearly.