Critical Minerals Markets
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Critical minerals are priced in four ways: on exchanges, by agency assessments of private trades, in bilateral contracts, and increasingly through government price floors. Most are small markets without an exchange, so the same mineral can have prices that move apart. In 2025 the Chinese spot price of lithium carbonate rose from about $9,300 to about $10,300 per tonne while the average U.S. fixed-contract price fell 31% to $9,000. Since July 2025 governments have also written a $110 per kilogram floor for neodymium-praseodymium oxide into contracts, against a USGS 2025 average of $69.
$110/kg
ten-year price floor for neodymium-praseodymium oxide in the MP Materials agreement with the Department of Defense
Source: MP Materials, July 2025
-31% vs +11%
change in the average U.S. fixed-contract and the Chinese spot lithium carbonate price in 2025
71%
of U.S. rare earth compound and metal imports came from China in 2021 to 2024
Which page answers which market question?
The pages run from how a price is set, through how it is contracted and reported, to what moves supply and demand.
| Page | Question it answers | Key figure |
|---|---|---|
| How Critical Minerals Are Priced | Which of the four price mechanisms applies to which mineral? | $110/kg floor against a $69/kg USGS 2025 average for NdPr oxide |
| Benchmarks and Price Reporting Agencies | Who publishes the prices that contracts refer to? | CME lithium carbonate settled at $16.85/kg for October 2026 |
| Spot vs Contract Pricing | Why do spot and contract prices diverge? | Lithium spot up 11%, U.S. contract price down 31% in 2025 |
| Offtake Agreements | How do buyers commit to projects, and what do governments add? | $110/kg floor for ten years and $400 million of preferred stock for MP Materials |
| Supply and Demand Models | How do analysts estimate a surplus or deficit? | Lithium surplus of about 27,000 t in 2025 |
| Trade Flows and Customs Codes | How is trade tracked, and who supplies whom? | 71% of U.S. rare earth compound imports from China |
| Substitution and Thrifting | Where has demand actually shifted away from a mineral? | Lithium iron phosphate was about 72% of cathode shipped in 2025 |
| Stockpiling and Inventory Cycles | Who holds inventories and what do they signal? | U.S. industry cobalt stocks up 57% in 2025 |
| Market Manipulation and Transparency | How do thin markets and hidden stocks create manipulation risk? | Not applicable |
| Rare Earth Stocks | What do listed rare earth companies report in their latest filings? | Lynas revenue of A$977.9m in the year to June 2026; no rare earth segment revenue at Energy Fuels in the first half |
| Rare Earth ETFs | How do the four US-listed rare earth funds differ in cost, size and holdings? | Three of the ten largest REMX holdings are rare earth producers |
| Critical Minerals Stocks and ETFs | What do the broad critical minerals funds hold, mineral by mineral? | Copper and uranium were 50.60% of Sprott's SETM |
Figures are taken from the linked pages, which cite USGS, company announcements, SNE Research and other sources.
Why are critical mineral prices hard to compare?
Critical mineral prices are hard to compare because they measure different things at different points in the chain. A London Metal Exchange cash price for nickel, a Fastmarkets assessment for lithium hydroxide and an average customs value for gallium imports are not the same kind of number, and USGS reports gallium at about $580 per kilogram only as the average customs value of U.S. imports. The pricing page shows which kind of price each mineral has, and the mineral profiles label every price with its source and date.
Frequently asked questions
How are critical minerals priced?
Critical minerals are priced on exchanges, by price reporting agency assessments, in bilateral contracts and, since July 2025, through government price floors. Nickel trades on the London Metal Exchange and lithium has CME futures, but most minor metals have only assessed or contract prices.
What is a price floor for critical minerals?
A price floor is a guaranteed minimum price written into a contract. The Department of Defense agreed a ten-year $110 per kilogram floor for neodymium-praseodymium oxide with MP Materials in July 2025, and Lynas agreed the same floor in later agreements.
Why do spot and contract prices for lithium differ?
Contract prices are fixed for a period and follow earlier market levels, while spot prices follow current trading. USGS recorded the Chinese spot price rising 11% from January to November 2025 while the average U.S. fixed-contract price fell 31% over the year.
Where can I find critical mineral prices?
Exchange prices are published by the London Metal Exchange and CME, and assessed prices by agencies such as Argus, Fastmarkets and Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. USGS publishes annual average prices for many minerals in its Mineral Commodity Summaries.
Sources
Read on October 13, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.
