Critical Minerals Geopolitics
Facts checked against sources on . How we check facts.
Critical minerals geopolitics is the contest over who can restrict, secure or price the supply of minerals that other countries need. China has required export licenses for gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, indium and seven medium and heavy rare earths since August 2023, and its suspension of the October 2025 rare earth measures runs until 10 November 2026, although on 28 September 2026 its commerce ministry said its trade arrangements with the United States run to 10 January 2027 without naming rare earths. The United States, for its part, was 100% net-import reliant for 12 critical minerals and at least 50% reliant for 29 more in 2024.
12 + 29
critical minerals the U.S. imports for 100% and for at least 50% of its needs, 2024 data
10 Nov 2026
end of the suspension of China's October 2025 rare earth and related export measures
Source: MOFCOM Announcement 2025 No. 70
96,600 t
maximum annual cobalt exports from Congo (Kinshasa) in 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 t for national strategic reserves
$8.5bn
pipeline of priority U.S. and Australian critical mineral projects under the framework signed on 20 October 2025
Source: Minerals Council of Australia
Which page covers which geopolitical question?
The six pages follow the actors: the country that holds the processing position, the countries that restrict supply, the importers that respond, and the rules that govern trade.
| Page | Question it answers | Key figure |
|---|---|---|
| Why China Dominates Processing | How did one country come to hold the middle of the supply chain? | About 90% of rare earth processing and magnet fabrication capacity (2026 European Parliament study via BISI) |
| Export Controls and Restrictions | Which controls are in force and which are suspended? | Suspensions end 10 and 27 November 2026; the April 2025 rare earth licensing was not suspended |
| Critical Minerals and National Security | What legal tools does the United States use? | $7.5 billion appropriated in 2025 for the stockpile, an industrial base fund and credit subsidies |
| Friendshoring and Partnerships | Which alliances and deals have been signed? | FORGE launched 4 February 2026; U.S.-Australia $8.5 billion pipeline |
| Resource Nationalism | How do producer countries restrict exports and take stakes? | Congo cobalt quota of 96,600 t a year in 2026 and 2027 |
| Sanctions and Compliance | Which rules apply to buyers of mineral products? | EU battery due diligence now starts 18 August 2027 |
Figures are taken from the linked pages, which cite MOFCOM announcements, U.S. statutes and proclamations, USGS and government releases.
Why do the dates matter now?
Two suspensions have fixed end dates within weeks. China's suspension of its October 2025 measures lasts until 10 November 2026, and its suspension of the ban on gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard material exports to the United States lasts until 27 November 2026. On 28 September 2026 China's commerce ministry said its trade arrangements with the United States run to 10 January 2027; reports say the statement does not name rare earths, so neither date has been confirmed as moved. The April 2025 rare earth licensing was never suspended. The export controls page tracks each measure and its status with the official MOFCOM text.
Frequently asked questions
What critical mineral exports has China restricted?
China has required export licenses for gallium, germanium, graphite, antimony, tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, indium and seven medium and heavy rare earths since August 2023. In November 2025 it suspended some of the later measures until 10 and 27 November 2026, but the April 2025 rare earth licensing was not suspended. On 28 September 2026 China said its US trade arrangements run to 10 January 2027 without naming rare earths.
How dependent is the United States on imported critical minerals?
The Commerce Department found the United States was 100% net-import reliant for 12 critical minerals and at least 50% reliant for 29 more in 2024. The finding led to the January 2026 proclamation on processed critical minerals.
What is friendshoring?
Friendshoring means shifting critical mineral supply chains to allied and partner countries so no single supplier can use its position as leverage. Recent examples are the U.S.-Australia framework of 20 October 2025 and the FORGE forum launched on 4 February 2026.
What is resource nationalism?
Resource nationalism is the use of export bans, quotas, processing mandates, state ownership and higher royalties by producing countries. Congo replaced its cobalt export ban with quotas in October 2025, and Indonesia cut its 2026 nickel ore quota.
Sources
Read on October 13, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.
- White House: proclamation adjusting imports of processed critical minerals (January 2026)
- MOFCOM Announcement 2025 No. 70 (suspension to 10 November 2026). See the export controls page for the 28 September 2026 statement, which does not name rare earths
- MOFCOM Announcement 2025 No. 72 (suspension to 27 November 2026)
- RAWMATERIALS.net: report of the MOFCOM statement of 28 September 2026. Trade press report; the statement itself is not linked
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: cobalt
- Minerals Council of Australia: U.S.-Australia framework
- Public Law 119-21 (appropriations for the stockpile and industrial base fund)
- Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute: China's rare earth processing dominance. Cites a 2026 European Parliament study
