The Critical Minerals Supply Chain
Facts checked against sources on . How we check facts.
The critical minerals supply chain runs from exploration and mining through concentration, chemical processing and refining to the manufacture of components such as batteries and magnets. The stages are concentrated in different places: mining is concentrated in countries that hold the deposits, while processing and component manufacturing are concentrated more heavily in China. The International Energy Agency's 2026 outlook says concentration has grown further, especially in refining.
86%
average share of the top three refiners across copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths in 2024
Source: IEA, May 2025
27 months
maximum permit time the EU Critical Raw Materials Act sets for strategic extraction projects (15 months for processing and recycling)
about 1/3
of expected 2035 rare earth magnet output covered by planned magnet production, per the IEA
-9%
change in critical mineral investment in 2025, ending several years of growth
What are the stages of the supply chain?
There are five main stages, and each has its own constraints. The table shows what happens at each stage, where the latest data put the concentration, and where this site covers it in depth.
| Stage | What happens | Concentration (latest data) | Read more |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Exploration and resources | Geological surveys and drilling define a deposit, with reserves reported to a stated standard | Reserves are widely spread: the USGS reports global rare earth reserves above 75 million t of oxide and graphite reserves of 310 million t | Exploration and resources |
| 2. Mining | Ore is extracted by open pit, underground or brine operations | Congo (Kinshasa) mined 230,000 t of 310,000 t of cobalt; Indonesia 2.6 Mt of 3.9 Mt of nickel; China 270,000 t of 390,000 t of rare earth oxide (USGS) | Mining |
| 3. Beneficiation and concentration | Crushing, flotation and magnetic separation raise the grade to a saleable concentrate | Often done near the mine, so it follows the mining pattern | Beneficiation |
| 4. Chemical processing and refining | Leaching, solvent extraction, separation and electrowinning make oxides, salts and metals | China produced 99% of primary low-purity gallium and leads refined cobalt; the top rare earth refiner's share was 85% in 2025 (IEA via Global Mining Review) | Refining, rare earth separation, chemical processing |
| 5. Manufacturing | Cathodes, anodes, magnets, alloys and semiconductor materials are made and assembled into products | China supplied 55% of US graphite anode material imports in early 2025; planned magnet capacity outside China covers about a third of 2035 output | Manufacturing chokepoints |
Percentages combine USGS 2026 data and IEA statements reported by Global Mining Review. The IEA site blocks automated readers, so the IEA figures come from the cited reports of its releases.
Why is processing the weak link?
Processing is the weak link because few countries have the plants and know-how, and they cannot be built quickly. China holds an estimated 90% of rare earth processing and magnet fabrication capacity according to a 2026 European Parliament study cited by the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute, while the United States has about 15,000 t of annual rare earth separation capacity against domestic demand of roughly 45,000 t. The reasons and the history are on the page about why China dominates processing, and the specific constraints are on the bottlenecks page.
Why does by-product supply matter?
Some critical minerals are recovered only as by-products of other metals, so their supply follows the host metal rather than their own price. The USGS reports that gallium is recovered predominantly as a by-product of processing bauxite and may also come from zinc ores, that germanium comes from zinc and lead-zinc-copper sulfide ores and from lignite coal, and that cobalt resources lie mostly in copper deposits in Congo (Kinshasa) and Zambia and in nickel deposits. Gallium content in bauxite is about 50 parts per million. More on this on the by-products page.
How long does it take to add supply?
Adding mine supply takes years, which is why shortages cannot be fixed quickly. The EU's own permitting limits for strategic projects, 27 months for extraction and 15 months for processing and recycling, apply only to the permit stage. The US Government Accountability Office has estimated that rebuilding a fully domestic mining-to-magnet supply chain could take up to 15 years. The IEA expects top rare earth refiner share to fall only from 85% in 2025 to about 70% by 2035 if planned projects arrive on time.
Frequently asked questions
What are the stages of the critical minerals supply chain?
The critical minerals supply chain has five main stages: exploration and resource definition, mining, beneficiation or concentration, chemical processing and refining, and manufacturing of components such as batteries and magnets. Processing and manufacturing are the most concentrated stages.
Which stage of the critical minerals supply chain is most concentrated?
Refining and processing is the most concentrated stage of the critical minerals supply chain. The IEA found the top three refiners held an average 86% share across six key minerals in 2024, and its 2026 outlook says concentration grew further, especially in refining.
Why are some critical minerals only available as by-products?
Some critical minerals are only available as by-products because they occur in very low concentrations in the ores of other metals. The USGS says gallium is recovered mainly from bauxite processing and germanium mainly from zinc ores, so supply depends on the host metal.
How long does it take to build new critical mineral supply?
Building new critical mineral supply takes many years. The EU caps permitting at 27 months for extraction projects, and the US Government Accountability Office estimates a fully domestic mining-to-magnet chain could take up to 15 years to rebuild.
Sources
Read on October 12, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026. Chapters on cobalt, nickel, rare earths, gallium, germanium and graphite
- IEA: Diversification is the cornerstone of energy security (May 2025)
- Global Mining Review: report on the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (17 July 2026)
- Regulation (EU) 2024/1252, Article 11
- Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute (30 September 2026)
