EV Battery Supply Risks
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The supply risks for electric vehicle batteries sit in a few countries and steps: the Democratic Republic of the Congo mines about 73% of cobalt, China produces about 82% of natural graphite and most anode material, and Indonesia mines about 67% of nickel. Governments have already acted on each: the Congo moved from a cobalt export ban to quotas in October 2025, China put graphite under export licensing in December 2023, Indonesia bans nickel ore exports, and the EU has postponed battery due diligence to 18 August 2027.
73%
of world cobalt mine output in 2025 came from the Congo; export quotas allow up to 96,600 tonnes a year in 2026 and 2027
82%
of world natural graphite output in 2025 was Chinese
67%
of world nickel mine output in 2025 came from Indonesia (2.6 of 3.9 million tonnes)
18 Aug 2027
new start date for EU battery due diligence on cobalt, natural graphite, lithium and nickel
Source: Regulation (EU) 2025/1561
Where is each battery mineral concentrated, and what has governments done?
The table sets the concentration measures next to the trade or regulatory measures that apply. The EU's 2023 study measures the bottleneck stage of each material, which can differ from the mining share USGS reports.
| Mineral | Concentration | Measures in force or announced |
|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | Congo: 73% of 2025 mine output (USGS); 63% of extraction in the EU 2023 study. China is the leading refiner and consumer. | Congo banned exports in February 2025 and replaced the ban in October 2025 with quotas of 18,125 tonnes for the rest of 2025 and up to 96,600 tonnes a year in 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for national strategic reserves. |
| Graphite | China: 82% of 2025 natural graphite (USGS); 67% of extraction in the EU 2023 study. Chinese firms supplied over 94% of EV anode material. | China export licensing from 1 December 2023. U.S. preliminary duties on Chinese anode material in 2025: antidumping 93.50%, countervailing 11.58% to 721.03%. |
| Nickel | Indonesia: 67% of 2025 mine output (USGS). China holds the largest share of processing in the EU study (33%). | Indonesia bans nickel ore exports. A WTO panel found the ban breaches GATT Article XI:1 in November 2022; Indonesia appealed and no Appellate Body division is available. |
| Lithium | Australia mined 92,000, China 62,000 and Chile 56,000 of about 290,000 tonnes in 2025 (USGS). | Zimbabwe banned lithium ore exports in 2022 and plans to ban concentrate exports from January 2027. |
| Manganese | South Africa: 38% of 2025 mine output (USGS); 29% of global supply in the EU study. | No export measure found in the sources used. |
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 chapters on cobalt, graphite, nickel, lithium and manganese; EU 2023 study; the export controls tracker.
Is the risk the mine or the refinery?
For several battery minerals the larger risk is the processing step, not the mine. USGS notes that China is the world's leading producer of refined cobalt and its leading consumer, mainly for lithium-ion batteries, and China exported 37,400 tonnes of spherical purified graphite in the first nine months of 2025. For batteries, the cathode and anode material steps are the clearest example: Chinese companies shipped most of both in 2025, as set out on the cathodes and anodes page.
Can chemistry changes reduce the risk?
Chemistry changes can shift which risk matters. USGS says cobalt-free iron and phosphorus cathodes held significant market share in China and that cobalt content per battery is decreasing, and lithium iron phosphate was about 72% of cathode material shipped in 2025 according to SNE Research. That reduces cobalt and nickel exposure but not lithium or graphite exposure, because LFP cells still use both. The supply and demand models page covers how analysts handle that assumption.
Frequently asked questions
What are the biggest supply risks for EV batteries?
The biggest risks are concentration of cobalt in the Congo (73% of 2025 output), of natural graphite and anode material in China (82% and over 94%), and of nickel in Indonesia (67% of 2025 output). Each has been affected by an export ban, licensing or trade duty since 2023.
Did the Congo ban cobalt exports?
Yes. The Congo banned cobalt exports in February 2025 to address oversupply and low prices, then replaced the ban in October 2025 with quotas of 18,125 tonnes for the rest of 2025 and up to 96,600 tonnes a year in 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for national strategic reserves.
Does China control graphite exports?
Yes. China put high-purity artificial graphite and natural flake graphite under export licensing from 1 December 2023. China exported 37,400 tonnes of spherical purified graphite in the first nine months of 2025, 29% more than a year earlier.
When does EU battery due diligence start?
EU battery due diligence on cobalt, natural graphite, lithium and nickel now applies from 18 August 2027. Regulation (EU) 2025/1561 moved the date from 18 August 2025 because the bodies that verify compliance had not yet been designated.
Sources
Read on October 13, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: cobalt
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: graphite
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: nickel, lithium and manganese. Lithium and manganese chapters at mcs2026-lithium.pdf and mcs2026-manganese.pdf
- European Commission: Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023. Table A
- Regulation (EU) 2025/1561. Read on EUR-Lex
- WTO dispute DS592: Indonesia, Measures Relating to Raw Materials
- MOFCOM Announcement 2023 No. 39 (graphite)
