How Critical Minerals Are Priced
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Critical minerals are priced in four ways: on exchanges, by agency assessments of private trades, in bilateral contracts, and increasingly by government price floors and quotas. A few large markets have exchange prices, such as nickel on the London Metal Exchange and lithium futures on the CME, but most minor metals trade privately and are priced from agency assessments or customs values. Since July 2025 governments have set a $110 per kilogram floor for neodymium-praseodymium oxide in three supply deals, which sits well above the $69 per kilogram USGS average for 2025.
$15,000/t
average 2025 London Metal Exchange cash price of nickel, down 11% on 2024
$16.85/kg
CME lithium carbonate settlement for October 2026, against a 2025 average US contract price of $9,000 per tonne
$580/kg
average customs value of US gallium metal imports in 2025: gallium has no assessed benchmark in the USGS data
$110/kg
NdPr floor price in the MP Materials, Lynas-Japan and Lynas-US agreements
Source: MP and Lynas filings
What are the four pricing mechanisms?
The mechanisms differ in who sets the price and how visible it is. The table gives an example of each from the latest sources.
| Mechanism | Who sets the price | Example | Visibility |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange | Buyers and sellers of standard contracts | London Metal Exchange nickel and cobalt cash prices; CME lithium hydroxide and carbonate futures, which settle on Fastmarkets assessments (USGS, Battery-Tech) | High: daily and public |
| Agency assessment | A price reporting agency from reported trades, bids and offers | Argus for rare earth oxides, germanium and tungsten; Benchmark Mineral Intelligence for lithium; S&P Global Platts for cobalt cathode (USGS) | Medium: often behind subscriptions |
| Bilateral contract or customs value | The two parties, or a recorded import value | US gallium metal at a customs value of $580 per kilogram in 2025 and indium at $390 per kilogram on an Argus warehouse price (USGS gallium, USGS indium) | Low: terms are private |
| Government floor or quota | A government agreement or policy | $110 per kilogram NdPr floors (MP, Lynas); DRC cobalt export quotas introduced to address low prices (USGS) | Medium: terms announced, payments visible |
How does a price floor work, in numbers?
A floor pays the producer the difference when the market price falls below it. The comparison below uses the USGS annual average NdPr oxide prices against the $110 floor. It is an illustration of the size of the gap, not a calculation of what MP Materials was paid, because the contracts define the reference price.
| Year | Average price, $/kg | Difference to $110 floor |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 124 | Market above the floor by $14 |
| 2023 | 75 | Floor above the market by $35 (47%) |
| 2024 | 55 | Floor above the market by $55 (100%) |
| 2025 | 69 | Floor above the market by $41 (59%) |
Source: average prices from USGS rare earths; differences calculated by this site. MP Materials recorded $17.6 million of price protection income in the June 2026 quarter and $59.9 million in the first half (MP Materials).
Why do different sources give different prices?
Different sources give different prices because each series covers a different product, delivery point, date and method. The USGS reports an average 2025 US lithium carbonate contract price of $9,000 per tonne from Benchmark, a spot price in China that rose from about $9,300 to about $10,300 per tonne during the year, and CME settlements of $16.85 per kilogram in October 2026. Dealer list prices differ again: a dealer quoting one grade and pack size is not quoting a benchmark. This site's gallium price page shows a dealer price beside a reference range for that reason. The agencies are covered on the benchmarks page and the rare earth case on the rare earth prices page.
How do governments influence prices without a floor?
Governments also influence prices through supply restrictions. The USGS says the Congolese cobalt export ban of February 2025 and the quotas that replaced it in October 2025 were meant to address oversupply and low prices, and the average US spot price for cobalt cathode rose from $16.77 to $21 per pound in 2025. Argus reports that Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota cut is a measure to regulate nickel pricing. See resource nationalism.
Frequently asked questions
How are critical minerals priced?
Critical minerals are priced on exchanges where contracts exist, by agency assessments of private trades, in bilateral contracts, and increasingly through government price floors and quotas. Most minor metals have no exchange price.
Which critical minerals trade on an exchange?
Nickel and cobalt have London Metal Exchange cash prices, and lithium carbonate and hydroxide have futures on the CME, SGX, ICE and the London Metal Exchange that settle on Fastmarkets assessments. Rare earths, gallium and germanium are priced from agency assessments or customs values.
What is a price floor for a mineral?
A price floor is a minimum price guaranteed to a producer, usually by a government or buyer. The $110 per kilogram NdPr floor in the MP Materials and Lynas agreements compares with a 2025 market average of $69 per kilogram.
Why are lithium prices so different between sources?
Lithium prices differ between sources because they measure different products, dates and delivery terms. The USGS reports a 2025 average US contract price of $9,000 per tonne, while CME settled lithium carbonate at $16.85 per kilogram for October 2026.
Sources
Read on October 12, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel, cobalt, lithium, gallium, indium, rare earths
- Battery-Tech: CME lithium contract open interest (6 October 2026)
- Lynas Rare Earths: 2026 Annual Report and Appendix 4E (26 August 2026). Read on 14 October 2026
- MP Materials: Second quarter 2026 results
- Argus: Indonesia to cut nickel mining quota in 2026
