Semiconductor Export Controls and Supply Risk
Facts checked against sources on . How we check facts.
China's export controls on gallium and germanium (licensing since August 2023 and a ban on shipments to the United States from December 2024) cut direct Chinese germanium supply to U.S. chipmakers and raised prices. USGS reports that U.S. germanium metal imports fell 67% in 2025 to 7,000 kilograms and that Europe's germanium metal price rose from $3,150 to $5,380 per kilogram between January and October 2025. Gallium imports more than doubled in 2025, which points to stock building. The suspension of the U.S.-specific ban for gallium, germanium and antimony ends on 27 November 2026 unless extended.
-67%
U.S. imports of germanium metal in 2025, to 7,000 kilograms
$3,150 to $5,380
Europe price of germanium metal per kilogram, January to October 2025
2x
U.S. gallium metal imports in 2025 compared with 2024, at about $580 per kilogram, up 30%
27 Nov 2026
end of China's suspension of the U.S.-specific gallium, germanium and antimony ban
Source: MOFCOM Announcement 2025 No. 72
How have the controls changed gallium, germanium and indium supply?
The table sets each metal's control against the measured effect and the supply response USGS and Canada's government record.
| Metal | Control | Measured effect | Non-Chinese supply response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallium | Licensing from August 2023; ban to the U.S. in December 2024; ban lifted for one year in November 2025. | U.S. gallium metal imports more than doubled in 2025 at about $580 per kilogram (up from $277 in 2021); GaAs wafer imports fell 24%; consumer stocks stayed near 3,400 kilograms. | Primary producers outside China are Japan and Russia. Projects were announced in Australia, Canada, Greece, Kazakhstan and Korea. DOE offered up to $6 million for recovery from alumina or zinc, and the Department of War granted $29.9 million for a Louisiana demonstration plant. |
| Germanium | Licensing from August 2023; ban to the U.S. in December 2024. | U.S. germanium metal imports fell 67% to 7,000 kilograms; dioxide imports rose 55% to 17,000 kilograms, which USGS links to pre-tariff buying. China's reported germanium metal exports fell from 36,656 kilograms (January to September 2023) to 7,520 (same period of 2025). Europe's metal price rose from $3,150 to $5,380 per kilogram; dioxide from $2,200 to $2,850. | DOE announced $1 billion of initiatives in August 2025, including germanium refining and byproduct recovery. In July 2026 Teck and the Canada Growth Fund agreed a framework to double germanium and antimony capacity at Trail, British Columbia, and possibly add gallium; completion is subject to conditions. |
| Indium | Licensing from February 2025. | Exports of unwrought indium fell 72% year on year to September 2025; the U.S. price averaged $390 per kilogram, up 11%. | Indium is not recovered from ores in the U.S.; USGS reports no recycling or end-use data. |
Sources: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 chapters on gallium, germanium and indium; Natural Resources Canada, 7 July 2026.
Why did gallium imports rise while germanium imports fell?
The two metals behaved differently because their import channels differ. In 2021 to 2024 China supplied only 18% of U.S. gallium metal imports directly, behind Canada (28%), Japan (22%) and Germany (16%), so the December 2024 ban left most channels open and buyers appear to have stocked up. Germanium metal came more from China (41% of U.S. imports in 2021 to 2024, with Belgium 27% and Germany 25%), so the ban removed a large channel. Imports of germanium dioxide, which come mainly from Belgium and Canada, rose 55% in 2025, which USGS links to buying ahead of possible tariff changes. These import shares are for 2021 to 2024, before the ban.
What happens on 27 November 2026?
The suspension of paragraph 2 of China's Announcement 2024 No. 46 ends on 27 November 2026. That paragraph said licenses for gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard material items to the United States would in principle not be granted. Licensing under the 2023 announcement is unaffected by the suspension, and China's statement of 28 September 2026 extending its trade arrangements with the United States to 10 January 2027 did not mention these metals. The dated record is on the export controls page.
Frequently asked questions
How have China's export controls affected chip supply?
They cut direct Chinese germanium supply to the U.S. and raised prices. USGS reports U.S. germanium metal imports fell 67% in 2025, Europe's germanium metal price rose from $3,150 to $5,380 per kilogram, and U.S. gallium metal imports more than doubled in 2025, which suggests stock building.
Which countries produce gallium outside China?
USGS lists Japan and Russia as the remaining primary low-purity gallium producers outside China, which produced 99% of the world total in 2025. Projects were announced in Australia, Canada, Greece, Kazakhstan and the Republic of Korea.
Is China's ban on gallium and germanium exports to the US still in force?
The U.S.-specific prohibition is suspended until 27 November 2026, under MOFCOM Announcement 2025 No. 72. The 2023 licensing requirement continues, and we found no announcement that the suspension has been extended.
Where could new germanium supply come from?
Canada is the most advanced. In July 2026 Teck, the Canada Growth Fund and the Canada Critical Minerals Accelerator agreed a framework to double germanium and antimony capacity at Trail, British Columbia. In the U.S., the Department of Energy announced $1 billion of initiatives in August 2025 that include germanium refining and byproduct recovery.
Sources
Read on October 13, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: gallium
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: germanium
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: indium
- MOFCOM Announcement 2025 No. 72. Chinese-language text read in a browser
- Natural Resources Canada: first agreement under the Canada Critical Minerals Accelerator (7 July 2026)
