Supply Risk in Criticality Assessments
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Supply risk measures how likely a supply disruption is. The EU builds it from supply concentration weighted by supplier governance, a trade-restriction parameter, import reliance, the recycling input rate and substitution, and a material counts as critical only if its supply risk is at least 1. USGS instead models the economic damage of year-long foreign trade disruptions. In the EU's 2023 assessment China was the largest global supplier of 11 of the 18 materials in the table below, and 11 of the 18 were at least 96% import-reliant for the EU.
1.0
EU supply risk threshold for a critical raw material
12 + 29
critical minerals the U.S. imports for 100% and for at least 50% of its needs, 2024 data
94%
of gallium processing is Chinese, with EU import reliance of 98%
How is supply risk calculated?
In the EU method supply risk combines several terms set out in Annex II of the Regulation. Concentration is measured with the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of global supply or EU sourcing, weighted by the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators of each supplier country. A trade parameter adjusts for export taxes, quotas or bans. The result is reduced by the end-of-life recycling input rate and by a substitution index and is scaled by import reliance. The USGS method of 2025 does not use a supply risk index; it simulates foreign trade disruptions and measures the probability-weighted loss to U.S. GDP.
What does the EU data show for individual materials?
The table lists the largest global supplier, the main EU source and the EU's import reliance for selected materials, from the overview table of the EU's 2023 study. "Not calculated" means the study gives no import reliance figure.
| Material | Largest global supplier | Main EU source | EU import reliance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallium | China, 94% (processing) | China, 69% | 98% |
| Germanium | China, 90% (processing) | China, 45% | 42% |
| Magnesium | China, 91% (processing) | China, 97% | 100% |
| Tungsten | China, 86% (processing) | China, 31% | Not calculated |
| Bismuth | China, 70% (processing) | China, 65% | 100% |
| Antimony | China, 56% (extraction) | Türkiye, 63% | 100% |
| Natural graphite | China, 67% (extraction) | China, 40% | 99% |
| Lithium | China, 56% (processing) | Chile, 79% | 100% |
| Cobalt | Congo, 63% (extraction) | Not stated | 81% |
| Niobium | Brazil, 89% (processing) | Not stated | 100% |
| Tantalum | Congo, 35% (extraction) | Not stated | 99% |
| Manganese | South Africa, 29% (extraction) | South Africa, 41% | 96% |
| Nickel | China, 33% (processing) | Russia, 29% | 75% |
| Boron | Türkiye, 48% (extraction) | Türkiye, 99% | 100% |
| Copper | Chile, 28% (extraction) | Poland, 19% | 48% |
| Aluminium / bauxite | Australia, 28% (extraction) | Guinea, 62% | 55% |
| Titanium metal | China, 25% (processing) | Not stated | 100% |
| Vanadium | China, 62% (processing) | Not stated | Not calculated |
Source: European Commission, Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023, Annex overview table. The study also prints a separate summary table whose supplier shares differ for a few materials; this table uses the overview table throughout.
Is high concentration enough to make a mineral critical?
Concentration is necessary but not sufficient, because governance, trade policy, import reliance and recycling also enter the score. Copper is 48% import-reliant for the EU and is only 28% supplied by its largest producer, so it does not meet the supply risk threshold on its own, but the Regulation names it a strategic raw material, which makes it critical as well. Manganese became critical in 2023 after EU production stopped in Bulgaria and Hungary and imports concentrated on South Africa and Gabon. How these scores feed the lists is explained on the EU review cycle page.
Frequently asked questions
What is supply risk in a criticality assessment?
Supply risk measures how likely it is that supply of a material will be disrupted. The EU calculates it from supply concentration weighted by supplier governance, a trade-restriction parameter, import reliance, recycling and substitution, and uses a threshold of 1.0.
Which materials have the highest import reliance in the EU?
In the EU's 2023 overview table, antimony, bismuth, boron, lithium, magnesium, niobium and titanium metal are all at 100% import reliance, and gallium is at 98%. Manganese is at 96%.
How does the USGS method treat supply risk?
USGS does not use an index. It runs more than 1,200 trade disruption scenarios for 84 commodities through an input-output model and recommends commodities whose probability-weighted loss to U.S. GDP exceeds $2 million a year, plus a check for a sole domestic producer.
Does governance matter for supply risk?
Yes. The EU weights each supplier's share by the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators, so concentration in a poorly governed country scores higher than the same concentration in a well-governed one.
Sources
Read on October 13, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.
- Regulation (EU) 2024/1252, Annex II section 2. Read on EUR-Lex
- European Commission: Study on the Critical Raw Materials for the EU 2023. Overview table of main global producers, EU sourcing and import reliance
- USGS Open-File Report 2025-1047
- White House proclamation of 14 January 2026
