Rare Earth Prices and Market Structure

Rare earths have no exchange: prices come from agency assessments of private trades, and they now differ by location. Inside China the prices follow the domestic market, and outside China prices for licensed heavy elements have been several times higher since China began licensing exports in April 2025. The US Geological Survey reports average 2025 prices of $69 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium oxide, up from $55 in 2024 but below the $124 of 2022, while governments have set a $110 per kilogram floor for it in three supply deals.

What have rare earth prices done over five years?

Prices of the magnet elements peaked in 2022, fell sharply by 2024 and rebounded in 2025, while the abundant elements stayed cheap and heavy elements moved on their own course. The table gives the USGS annual averages for 10 elements, free on board, from Argus Media and Asian Metal.

How are rare earth prices determined?

Rare earth prices are determined by agencies that assess private trades, because there is no exchange contract. The USGS takes its oxide prices from Argus Media's Non-Ferrous Markets and, for the heavy elements, also from Asian Metal. A single assessment covers one grade, one delivery basis and one market, so it can differ from what a buyer pays. Lynas attributes its record average selling price of A$80.7 per kilogram of rare earth oxide in FY26 to improved NdPr market prices, a larger share of heavy rare earth sales and sales with pricing not linked to the market index, which shows how contract terms now sit alongside the index.

Why have prices split between China and the rest of the world?

Prices have split because China's licensing made heavy rare earths scarce outside the country while Chinese domestic prices stayed lower. Adamas Intelligence wrote that China's April 2025 controls triggered immediate supply disruptions in automotive and defense production and that prices spiked "several times higher outside China". Its outlook adds that China produced over 99% of refined dysprosium and terbium in recent years, so non-Chinese buyers have few alternatives. For the light elements the gap is smaller. The USGS 2025 averages shown above are Chinese-origin prices, so the table understates what licensed heavy material cost elsewhere.

What do price floors do?

A price floor guarantees a producer a minimum price and so separates part of the market from the index. Three agreements now use $110 per kilogram of NdPr: the Department of Defense's 10-year deal with MP Materials in July 2025, Lynas's 12-year agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths announced on 10 March 2026 for firm offtake of 5,000 tonnes a year, and a binding letter of intent between Lynas and the US government in March 2026 worth about US$96 million over four years. The Japanese agreement also shares upside above US$150 per kilogram, capped at US$10 million a year. MP Materials recorded $17.6 million of price protection income in the June 2026 quarter and $59.9 million in the first half. Adamas expects floors outside the US to follow. See offtake agreements.

What does this mean for buyers and investors?

Buyers face two prices, one in China and one elsewhere, and the gap depends on licenses. For investors, the floors reduce revenue risk for a few producers but do not remove price volatility for the market: NdPr fell 56% between 2022 and 2024 on USGS data. The detail of the policies that created the split is on the export controls page. This site is not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

How are rare earth prices set?

Rare earth prices are set by agencies that assess private trades, because rare earths are not traded on an exchange. The USGS uses assessments from Argus Media and Asian Metal, and contracts increasingly include floors or terms that are independent of the index.

What is the price of neodymium-praseodymium oxide?

Neodymium-praseodymium oxide averaged $69 per kilogram in 2025 according to the USGS, up from $55 in 2024 and down from $124 in 2022. Governments have agreed a $110 per kilogram floor for it in deals with MP Materials and Lynas.

Why are dysprosium and terbium prices higher outside China?

Dysprosium and terbium prices are higher outside China because China licenses their export and refines over 99% of them. Adamas Intelligence says prices outside China spiked several times higher after the April 2025 controls.

What is the NdPr price floor?

The NdPr price floor is a minimum of $110 per kilogram that governments agreed for neodymium-praseodymium oxide in a 10-year deal with MP Materials from July 2025, a 12-year Japanese agreement with Lynas from March 2026 and a US government letter of intent with Lynas.

Sources

Read on October 12, 2026. Figures on this page come from these documents; where a number is an estimate, the source says so.

1. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Rare earths
2. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Rare earths (heavy)
3. Lynas Rare Earths: 2026 Annual Report and Appendix 4E (26 August 2026). Read on 14 October 2026
4. Lynas Rare Earths: Quarterly report for the period ended 30 June 2026 (22 July 2026). Read on 14 October 2026
5. MP Materials: Second quarter 2026 results
6. MP Materials: Department of Defense partnership (10 July 2025)
7. Adamas Intelligence: Rare Earth Magnet Market Outlook, top predictions for 2026